Arbroath vs Morton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Arbroath 1-2 Morton.
Before kick-off the model made it 73% Arbroath, 17% draw, 10% Morton — fair odds of 1.37, 5.88 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arbroath at 73% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Arbroath vs Morton
Arbroath
- L0-3away to Partick3 October 2026
- W2-1Queen's Park25 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stenhousemuir19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Raith Rovers12 September 2026
Morton
- L1-2Raith Rovers3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Inverness CT25 September 2026
- L0-1Dunfermline19 September 2026
- L1-4Livingston11 September 2026
What these results say
- Arbroath conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Arbroath failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arbroath failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Morton did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Morton conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Arbroath | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Morton | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arbroath vs Morton
- 22 August 2026Morton 1–2 ArbroathChampionship
- 28 March 2026Morton 2–1 ArbroathChampionship
- 23 January 2026Arbroath 1–1 MortonChampionship
- 8 November 2025Morton 1–0 ArbroathChampionship
- 20 September 2025Arbroath 1–1 MortonChampionship
- 20 April 2024Arbroath 1–2 MortonChampionship
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.