Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir Championship prediction & result
Final score: Inverness CT 2-0 Stenhousemuir.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Inverness CT, 29% draw, 42% Stenhousemuir — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stenhousemuir at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir
Inverness CT
- W2-0Morton25 September 2026
- D2-2away to Livingston19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ayr Utd12 September 2026
Stenhousemuir
- W1-0away to Ayr Utd25 September 2026
- W1-0Arbroath19 September 2026
- W1-0Partick15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Livingston4 September 2026
What these results say
- Stenhousemuir won every one of these 4 matches.
- Stenhousemuir scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Stenhousemuir kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Inverness CT | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 13 |
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir
- 29 August 2026Stenhousemuir 3–1 Inverness CTChampionship
- 11 April 2026Stenhousemuir 1–1 Inverness CTLeague One
- 21 February 2026Inverness CT 1–1 StenhousemuirLeague One
- 27 January 2026Inverness CT 1–0 StenhousemuirChallenge Cup
- 20 December 2025Stenhousemuir 1–0 Inverness CTLeague One
- 16 August 2025Inverness CT 1–2 StenhousemuirLeague One
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.