Arsenal vs Leeds Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Arsenal 2-1 Leeds.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Arsenal, 25% draw, 18% Leeds — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 57% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arsenal vs Leeds
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1David RayaG
- 4B. WhiteD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 41D. RiceM
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
- 7B. SakaM
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 20N. MaduekeM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 56M. DowmanF
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 10E. EzeM
- 12J. TimberD
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 13KepaG
- 1J. TraffordG
- 24J. JustinD
- 30N. ElvediD
- 5T. MuharemovićD
- 2J. BogleM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 22A. TanakaM
- 3G. GudmundssonM
- 18A. StachM
- 19N. OkaforM
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 14L. NmechaF
- 23J. BahoyaF
- 16M. ZettererG
- 26M. BardD
- 15J. BijolD
- 8S. LongstaffM
- 44I. GruevM
- 10H. WilsonF
- 11B. AaronsonM
Form going into Arsenal vs Leeds
Arsenal
- L0-3away to Brighton19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
Leeds
- D0-0Crystal Palace20 September 2026
- W4-1Newcastle14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brighton5 September 2026
- D1-1Brentford30 August 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arsenal scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Leeds went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Leeds failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Leeds scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Leeds
- 10 October 2026Arsenal 2–1 LeedsPremier League
- 31 January 2026Leeds 0–4 ArsenalPremier League
- 23 August 2025Arsenal 5–0 LeedsPremier League
- 1 April 2023Arsenal 4–1 LeedsPremier League
- 16 October 2022Leeds 0–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 8 May 2022Arsenal 2–1 LeedsPremier League
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Leeds
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- B. Saka30
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.