Chelsea vs Bournemouth Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Chelsea 5-1 Bournemouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Chelsea, 25% draw, 37% Bournemouth — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chelsea at 38% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. MartínezG
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
- 5M. LacroixD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 14J. HendersonM
- 25M. CaicedoM
- 29Pep ChavarríaM
- 10C. PalmerF
- 9João PedroF
- 17M. RogersF
- 41EstêvãoF
- 3W. FofanaD
- 27M. GustoD
- 21J. HatoD
- 45R. LaviaM
- 2M. PalestraD
- 39M. PendersG
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 15A. SmithD
- 5J. HillD
- 14António SilvaD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 12T. AdamsM
- 10R. ChristieM
- 7D. BrooksM
- 37RayanM
- 16M. TavernierM
- 9EvanilsonF
- 24Juanlu SánchezM
- 6J. SolerD
- 30Á. RodríguezF
- 29D. JebbisonF
- 11B. DoakF
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 4L. CookM
- 27A. TóthM
Form going into Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Chelsea
- L0-3away to Brentford18 September 2026
- D2-2Hull City12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arsenal6 September 2026
- W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
Bournemouth
- L0-1Liverpool20 September 2026
- D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
- D1-1Everton29 August 2026
What these results say
- Chelsea conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Chelsea had three goals or more.
- Chelsea failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bournemouth did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Bournemouth conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bournemouth scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 10 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Bournemouth
- 10 October 2026Chelsea 5–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 30 December 2025Chelsea 2–2 BournemouthPremier League
- 6 December 2025Bournemouth 0–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 14 January 2025Chelsea 2–2 BournemouthPremier League
- 14 September 2024Bournemouth 0–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 19 May 2024Chelsea 2–1 BournemouthPremier League
Leading scorers: Chelsea and Bournemouth
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers41
- C. Palmer23
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- M. Tavernier30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.