Sunderland vs Brighton Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Sunderland 0-2 Brighton.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Sunderland, 25% draw, 49% Brighton — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 49% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sunderland vs Brighton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22R. RoefsG
- 32T. HumeD
- 20N. MukieleD
- 4K. DansoD
- 17ReinildoD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 27N. SadikiM
- 12T. MeunierM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 18W. IsidorF
- 15O. AldereteD
- 50J. AnguloF
- 37J. BiF
- 31M. EllborgG
- 39M. FofanaF
- 6D. MethalieD
- 13L. O'NienM
- 11C. RiggM
- 7C. TalbiF
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 24F. KadıoğluD
- 44L. VuškovićD
- 4P. StruijkD
- 21O. BoscagliD
- 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
- 13P. GroßM
- 25D. GómezM
- 26Y. AyariM
- 29M. De CuyperM
- 19C. KostoulasF
- 23J. SteeleG
- 10G. RutterF
- 15I. OsmanF
- 33M. O'RileyM
- 20CostinhaD
- 3J. HadjamD
- 5L. DunkD
- 12P. DavidF
- 35M. YalcouyéM
Form going into Sunderland vs Brighton
Sunderland
- L3-5away to Manchester City20 September 2026
- L0-2Arsenal12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
Brighton
- W3-0Arsenal19 September 2026
- W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
What these results say
- Sunderland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sunderland scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sunderland conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Brighton scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Brighton had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Brighton
- 10 October 2026Sunderland 0–2 BrightonPremier League
- 14 March 2026Sunderland 0–1 BrightonPremier League
- 20 December 2025Brighton 0–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 23 August 2011Brighton 1–0 SunderlandLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Brighton
Sunderland
GoalsAssists
- B. Brobbey30
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß34
- M. De Cuyper22
- C. Kostoulas21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.