Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura 1. SNL prediction & result
Final score: Olimpija Ljubljana 3-3 Mura.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Olimpija Ljubljana, 24% draw, 15% Mura — fair odds of 1.64, 4.17 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Olimpija Ljubljana at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura
Olimpija Ljubljana
- L1-2away to Bravo20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Koper12 September 2026
- W3-0Brinje-Grosuplje5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Radomlje29 August 2026
Mura
- D0-0Celje20 September 2026
- L1-6Aluminij13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Maribor6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bravo29 August 2026
What these results say
- Olimpija Ljubljana scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Olimpija Ljubljana had three goals or more.
- Mura did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Mura conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Mura had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura
- 25 July 2026Mura 1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 4 April 2026Mura 0–0 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 31 January 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura1. SNL
- 28 September 2025Mura 0–2 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
- 19 July 2025Olimpija Ljubljana 1–0 Mura1. SNL
- 10 May 2025Mura 1–1 Olimpija Ljubljana1. SNL
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.