Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Arka Gdynia 1-2 Polonia Warszawa.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Arka Gdynia, 25% draw, 22% Polonia Warszawa — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arka Gdynia at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
Arka Gdynia
- L1-2away to Pogoń Siedlce20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Warta Poznań12 September 2026
- D1-1ŁKS Łódź6 September 2026
- D1-1Polonia Bytom30 August 2026
Polonia Warszawa
- W2-0Chrobry Głogów19 September 2026
- D2-2Polonia Bytom11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Stal Rzeszów5 September 2026
- L2-4Lechia Gdansk29 August 2026
What these results say
- Arka Gdynia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Arka Gdynia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Arka Gdynia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
- 14 February 2025Arka Gdynia 0–0 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 3 August 2024Polonia Warszawa 0–3 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 17 February 2024Polonia Warszawa 0–3 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 7 August 2023Arka Gdynia 2–3 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.