Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Podbeskidzie 1-0 Pogoń Siedlce.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Podbeskidzie, 31% draw, 27% Pogoń Siedlce — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Polish I Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Podbeskidzie at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce
Podbeskidzie
- D1-1Unia Skierniewice20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Ruch Chorzów12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice29 August 2026
Pogoń Siedlce
- W2-1Arka Gdynia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chrobry Głogów12 September 2026
- W2-0Stal Mielec29 August 2026
What these results say
- Podbeskidzie did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Podbeskidzie conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Podbeskidzie had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Pogoń Siedlce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce
- 26 September 2023Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 PodbeskidzieCup
- 25 September 2019Pogoń Siedlce 1–0 PodbeskidzieCup
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.