Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Chrobry Głogów 0-4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Chrobry Głogów, 30% draw, 26% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chrobry Głogów at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Chrobry Głogów
- L0-2away to Polonia Warszawa19 September 2026
- D0-0Pogoń Siedlce12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Miedz Legnica5 September 2026
- W2-0Ruch Chorzów30 August 2026
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- W2-0ŁKS Łódź19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Unia Skierniewice13 September 2026
- W1-0Warta Poznań4 September 2026
- D2-2Nieciecza28 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Chrobry Głogów had two goals or fewer.
- Chrobry Głogów failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chrobry Głogów | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 |
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- 7 March 2026Chrobry Głogów 3–0 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga
- 23 August 2025Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.