Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza I Liga prediction & result
Final score: Unia Skierniewice 2-2 Nieciecza.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Unia Skierniewice, 27% draw, 46% Nieciecza — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nieciecza at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
Unia Skierniewice
- D1-1away to Podbeskidzie20 September 2026
- W3-2Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ruch Chorzów7 September 2026
- L0-1Stal Rzeszów28 August 2026
Nieciecza
- W1-0Odra Opole19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stal Mielec14 September 2026
- W2-1Lechia Gdansk4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki28 August 2026
What these results say
- Unia Skierniewice conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nieciecza went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Nieciecza scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Nieciecza won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 3 | Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
- 10 October 2026Unia Skierniewice 2–2 NiecieczaI Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.