SK Beveren vs Lommel United Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: SK Beveren 1-3 Lommel United.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% SK Beveren, 30% draw, 40% Lommel United — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Jupiler Pro League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lommel United at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SK Beveren vs Lommel United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. SchenkG
- 25C. KonateD
- 35Y. GomisD
- 31B. GodeauD
- 4C. JanssensD
- 18S. DewaeleM
- 44C. CondeM
- 5C. LokesaM
- 22C. BrulsM
- 17J. MargarithaM
- 9E. KaboreF
- 84J. LusambaG
- 2D. ThompsonD
- 48J. RobatschD
- 7I. NajimF
- 24A. VerschuerenM
- 8F. SlegersM
- 92L. MertensF
- 33V. OlatunjiF
- 11J. DioufF
- 23M. PieklakG
- 2J. van DuivenD
- 3T. EyomaD
- 8N. RommensD
- 4S. AdewoyeD
- 15L. SchoofsM
- 44I. Dada-MascollM
- 7J. TalvitieM
- 10T. ReynersM
- 11S. AppuahM
- 9D. KonaduF
- 33R. VercauterenG
- 1N. IvezicG
- 47T. GooijerD
- 22D. GordicM
- 46N. CorthoutsF
- 17E. VandecraenD
- 60L. BeirinckxD
- 73A. Reumers
- 12E. OdedeF
Form going into SK Beveren vs Lommel United
SK Beveren
- L0-1away to Kortrijk20 September 2026
- W2-0St. Truiden12 September 2026
- W3-0OH Leuven6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Genk28 August 2026
Lommel United
- D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026
- L0-5away to Union St. Gilloise12 September 2026
- L0-1Club Brugge KV4 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cercle Brugge29 August 2026
What these results say
- Lommel United failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lommel United failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Lommel United had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SK Beveren vs Lommel United
- 9 October 2026SK Beveren 1–3 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
- 8 February 2026SK Beveren 2–0 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 7 November 2025Lommel United 2–2 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
- 22 February 2025Lommel United 1–2 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
- 17 August 2024SK Beveren 2–1 Lommel UnitedChallenger Pro League
- 19 April 2024Lommel United 3–1 SK BeverenChallenger Pro League
Leading scorers: SK Beveren and Lommel United
SK Beveren
GoalsAssists
- C. Lokesa40
Lommel United
GoalsAssists
- T. Reyners30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.