Celje vs Aluminij 1. SNL prediction & result
Final score: Celje 1-0 Aluminij.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Celje, 23% draw, 17% Aluminij — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celje at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Celje vs Aluminij
Celje
- D0-0away to Mura20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bravo12 September 2026
- L0-1Koper6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aluminij2 September 2026
Aluminij
- D2-2away to Maribor19 September 2026
- W6-1away to Mura13 September 2026
- D0-0Bravo5 September 2026
- L0-2Celje2 September 2026
What these results say
- Celje failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Celje had two goals or fewer.
- Aluminij failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aluminij conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celje vs Aluminij
- 2 September 2026Aluminij 0–2 Celje1. SNL
- 26 April 2026Celje 5–0 Aluminij1. SNL
- 5 March 2026Aluminij 2–1 Celje1. SNL
- 1 November 2025Celje 2–1 Aluminij1. SNL
- 17 August 2025Aluminij 2–3 Celje1. SNL
- 30 March 2024Celje 2–2 Aluminij1. SNL
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.