Aston Villa vs Brentford Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Aston Villa, 26% draw, 34% Brentford — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aston Villa at 40% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aston Villa vs Brentford
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5T. MingsD
- 13M. RuggeriD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 35João GomesM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 40M. BizotG
- 26L. BogardeM
- 14Pau TorresD
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 19I. MbayeF
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 47Alysson EdwardF
- 1C. KelleherG
- 33M. KayodeD
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 20K. AjerD
- 25E. DioufD
- 6Y. YarmolyukM
- 27V. JaneltM
- 19J. AnthonyM
- 23K. Lewis-PotterM
- 7K. SchadeM
- 9ThiagoF
- 13C. WilsonF
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
- 18M. SangaréM
- 11D. OuattaraF
- 8M. JensenM
- 2A. HickeyD
- 14Fábio CarvalhoM
- 48B. FredrickD
- 4S. van den BergD
Form going into Aston Villa vs Brentford
Aston Villa
- W3-2away to Tottenham19 September 2026
- L1-2Nottingham Forest12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026
Brentford
- W3-0Chelsea18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bournemouth12 September 2026
- D1-1Sunderland5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
What these results say
- Aston Villa failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Aston Villa conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Brentford went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Brentford scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Brentford failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Brentford
- 10 October 2026Aston Villa 2–2 BrentfordPremier League
- 1 February 2026Aston Villa 0–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 16 September 2025Brentford 1–1 Aston VillaLeague Cup
- 23 August 2025Brentford 1–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- 8 March 2025Brentford 0–1 Aston VillaPremier League
- 4 December 2024Aston Villa 3–1 BrentfordPremier League
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Brentford
Aston Villa
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.