9 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

FC Rostov vs Akron Premier League prediction & result

Rostov Arena, Rostov
Referee: Danil Naboka, Russia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: FC Rostov 1-0 Akron.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% FC Rostov, 26% draw, 29% Akron — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Rostov at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Rostov96%Draw4%Akron0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
Vyacheslav Bardybakhin
24'
karlen hovhannisyan
⚽Ivan Komarov
45+2'
45+3'
Srđan Blagojević
•Timur Suleymanov
50'
🔁Timur Suleymanovout: Ronaldo
61'
63'
🔁karlen hovhannisyanout: Milutin Vidosavljević
63'
🔁Dudu Rodriguesout: Artem Shumanskiy
67'
Stefan Loncar
70'
🔁Gilson Benchimolout: Maksim Boldyrev
🔁Aleksey Mironovout: Daniil Shantaliy
73'
🔁Viktor Melekhinout: Daniil Khlusevich
74'
Daniil Khlusevich
84'
🔁Olakunle Olusegunout: Imran Aznaurov
85'
🔁Konstantin Kuchaevout: Dmitriy Chistyakov
85'
86'
🔁Kristijan Bistrovićout: Yomar Rocha
86'
🔁Vyacheslav Bardybakhinout: Khetag Khosonov

Match stats — FC Rostov vs Akron

40%Possession60%
10Shots15
4On target5
1Corners5
0.49xG0.75

Goals against chances

FC Rostov1 from 0.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
Akron0 from 0.75 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Rostov 4-3-3
  • 84A. PetrovG
  • 4V. MelekhinD
  • 3O. SakoD
  • 40Ygor NogueiraD
  • 87A. LangovichD
  • 8A. MironovM
  • 27D. ProkhinM
  • 18K. KuchaevM
  • 10I. KomarovF
  • 99T. SuleymanovF
  • 6O. OlusegunF
Substitutes
  • 73Imran AznaurovF
  • 78D. ChistyakovD
  • 34D. GolikovG
  • 26D. KhlusevichD
  • 59N. BabakinD
  • 5Y. MikhaylovM
  • 16M. MukhinM
  • 7RonaldoF
  • 22D. SemenchukD
Coach: D. Kirichenko
Akron 4-3-3
  • 88V. GudievG
  • 13V. BardybakhinD
  • 26João EscovalD
  • 19M. BokoevD
  • 21R. FernándezD
  • 6K. HovhannisyanM
  • 8K. BistrovićM
  • 15S. LončarM
  • 11DuduF
  • 9S. TedićF
  • 7Gilson BenchimolF
Substitutes
  • 91M. BoldyrevM
  • 5Aleksa Đurasović IM
  • 69A. DmitrievF
  • 80K. KhosonovM
  • 24I. NedelcearuD
  • 89D. PopenkovM
  • 2Y. RochaD
  • 99A. ShumanskiyF
  • 32I. TerekhovskiyG
Coach: S. Blagojević

Form going into FC Rostov vs Akron

FC Rostov

  • L0-3Dynamo17 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Spartak Moscow13 September 2026
  • W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026

Akron

  • W2-0Akhmat17 September 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Krasnodar13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Orenburg6 September 2026
  • D2-2CSKA Moscow28 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Rostov conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Rostov failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Rostov failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Akron went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Akron scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Akron failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12FC Rostov103251117-611
14Akron101541119-88

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs Akron

  • 4 August 2026Akron 0–4 FC RostovCup
  • 11 May 2026Akron 1–3 FC RostovPremier League
  • 1 November 2025FC Rostov 0–1 AkronPremier League
  • 31 March 2025Akron 2–3 FC RostovPremier League
  • 18 February 2025FC Rostov 0–1 AkronFriendlies Clubs
  • 28 September 2024FC Rostov 0–2 AkronPremier League

Leading scorers: FC Rostov and Akron

FC Rostov

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Akron

GoalsAssists

  • Gilson Benchimol42

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.