3 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Partick vs Arbroath Championship prediction & result

Firhill Stadium, Glasgow
Referee: J. Wilkie
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Partick 3-0 Arbroath.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Partick, 29% draw, 29% Arbroath — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Partick at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Partick99%Draw1%Arbroath0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽B. Stanwayassist: S. Drozd
8'
⚽B. Stanwayassist: S. Drozd
20'
25'
S. Mackie
🔁E. Hendersonout: A. Fitzpatrick
63'
🔁A. Samuelout: T. Watt
63'
67'
🔁R. Dowout: C. Daly
67'
🔁A. Winterout: G. Reilly
68'
🔁M. McKennaout: D. Reid
⚽L. Ashcroftassist: O. Smyth
70'
🔁S. Drozdout: G. Mackay-Steven
75'
🔁B. Dempseyout: R. Crawford
75'
76'
🔁S. Mackieout: B. Paterson
83'
🔁R. Flynnout: S. McGill
🔁B. Stanwayout: T. Letsosa
85'
90'
S. Constable

Line-ups

Partick 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. BudinauckasG
  • 24B. McPhersonD
  • 5L. AshcroftD
  • 22C. LoughreyD
  • 3P. ReadingD
  • 6B. DempseyM
  • 8O. SmythM
  • 7S. DrozdM
  • 26B. StanwayM
  • 10E. HendersonM
  • 9A. SamuelF
Substitutes
  • 32T. WattF
  • 21A. FitzpatrickM
  • 14R. CrawfordM
  • 17E. IngramD
  • 64T. LetsosaM
  • 2C. LoganD
  • 11G. Mackay-StevenF
  • 20D. O'ReillyD
  • 27C. StoreyG
Coach: M. Wilson
Arbroath 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. McAdamsG
  • 6T. BeadlingD
  • 16C. WatsonD
  • 22C. DewarD
  • 26S. MackieD
  • 20S. ConstableM
  • 8R. FlynnM
  • 25J. MacIntyreM
  • 14M. McKennaM
  • 11R. DowM
  • 9A. WinterF
Substitutes
  • 10G. ReillyF
  • 21J. PettigrewG
  • 4B. PatersonD
  • 15S. McGillM
  • 3C. HamiltonD
  • 7D. GoldM
  • 19Cormac DalyM
  • 17D. ReidM
Coach: D. Gold

Form going into Partick vs Arbroath

Partick

  • D0-0Raith Rovers19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Stenhousemuir15 September 2026
  • W1-0Ayr Utd5 September 2026

Arbroath

  • W2-1Queen's Park25 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Stenhousemuir19 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Raith Rovers12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Partick9531103+718
8Arbroath10325715-811

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Partick vs Arbroath

  • 3 October 2026Partick 3–0 ArbroathChampionship
  • 25 April 2026Arbroath 0–0 PartickChampionship
  • 28 February 2026Partick 0–0 ArbroathChampionship
  • 13 December 2025Arbroath 2–1 PartickChampionship
  • 4 October 2025Partick 1–1 ArbroathChampionship
  • 23 March 2024Arbroath 0–1 PartickChampionship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.