Waalwijk vs Emmen Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Waalwijk 1-1 Emmen.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Waalwijk, 26% draw, 23% Emmen — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waalwijk at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Waalwijk vs Emmen
Line-ups
- 16M. SpenkelinkG
- 42B. KemmerenD
- 3S. van der PlasD
- 30J. de WijsD
- 55N. HeldD
- 8J. NapM
- 6L. PostmaM
- 7R. FageM
- 10T. van LeeuwenM
- 93V. MisidjanM
- 9J. van de HaarF
- 18R. van HedelM
- 22T. van de LooM
- 11Yorem van der VeenF
- 24A. DkidakD
- 17R. KuijpersF
- 13Xander MulderG
- 20Keyan VarelaF
- 27F. StokkersF
- 31L. VogelsG
- 1S. KarssiesG
- 2J. MukehD
- 25R. KongoloD
- 3Y. Dede-LhommeD
- 24L. EverinkM
- 6C. StaringM
- 7T. RheinM
- 17B. Van HoveM
- 22M. BreijM
- 23D. LambersF
- 9J. CooperF
- 18V. CarusD
- 8L. DenkM
- 4C. ØstergaardD
- 5D. VouteF
- 40S. VeldhuisF
- 15C. SunderM
- 38Kevin NorderG
- 27J. HuijzerM
- 21A. HojabrpourM
Form going into Waalwijk vs Emmen
Waalwijk
- L0-2away to Roda26 September 2026
- W6-1MVV18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Jong Ajax11 September 2026
Emmen
- W1-0FC OSS26 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Eindhoven18 September 2026
- L1-2De Graafschap11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Waalwijk | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | Emmen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Waalwijk vs Emmen
- 3 October 2026Waalwijk 1–1 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 10 April 2026Waalwijk 5–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
- 2 November 2025Emmen 2–2 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 28 January 2023Waalwijk 2–0 EmmenEredivisie
- 13 August 2022Emmen 1–1 WaalwijkEredivisie
- 4 April 2021Emmen 3–1 WaalwijkEredivisie
Leading scorers: Waalwijk and Emmen
Waalwijk
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Emmen
GoalsAssists
- F. Quispel71
- J. Cooper63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.