Den Bosch vs Dordrecht Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Den Bosch 1-1 Dordrecht.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Den Bosch, 28% draw, 27% Dordrecht — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Den Bosch at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Den Bosch vs Dordrecht
Line-ups
- 1P. van de MerbelG
- 22Jeffry FortesD
- 25Silvan BrokerD
- 3S. MaasD
- 33M. LarosD
- 18H. EikelboomM
- 10Devon DecorteM
- 16Wang BohaoM
- 11J. De VriesF
- 9S. Karlsson GrachF
- 8K. MonzialoF
- 66R. van BalsfoortG
- 27L. HoffmanF
- 2S. BarglanD
- 55G. HesselsM
- 21F. MurreG
- 17E. SemedoF
- 7G. SilleF
- 56Jari De KruijffM
- 41K. de RooijD
- 28T. CoremansG
- 22J. van AkenD
- 4J. PinasD
- 3S. HenderikxD
- 5C. MpanzuD
- 8Senne VugtsM
- 6L. RiccioM
- 11N. RossiM
- 21M. VetkalM
- 10A. OuarghiM
- 77D. ŠitsF
- 44B. HardleyD
- 15Y. M'BembaD
- 29Siginho GerardoF
- 2A. LechkarD
- 13Dean HogervorstG
- 51Lucas GardenierD
- 1Finn OldenstamG
- 16L. RománF
- 23L. WoudenbergD
Form going into Den Bosch vs Dordrecht
Den Bosch
- L0-1away to De Graafschap27 September 2026
- W2-1Helmond Sport18 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Volendam13 September 2026
Dordrecht
- W3-2Almere City FC25 September 2026
- L0-3away to FC OSS18 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Eindhoven11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Den Bosch | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Den Bosch vs Dordrecht
- 3 October 2026Den Bosch 1–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 23 January 2026Dordrecht 3–2 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 12 September 2025Den Bosch 3–3 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 12 April 2025Dordrecht 4–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 1 December 2024Den Bosch 2–3 DordrechtEerste Divisie
- 29 March 2024Den Bosch 0–3 DordrechtEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Den Bosch and Dordrecht
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach40
Dordrecht
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.