FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% FC Eindhoven, 28% draw, 29% De Graafschap — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Eindhoven at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap
Line-ups
- 1J. BorgmansG
- 17L. NettenD
- 4Predrag JevtićD
- 44O. RenfrumD
- 20Raf van de RietD
- 28R. BuifrahiM
- 6G. BeaumontM
- 8X. BlommeM
- 7H. DeenenM
- 9K. van VeenF
- 19Kevin FerreiraF
- 18Antonio BaždarićM
- 10Lasse AbildgaardF
- 13A. BrysonF
- 22C. EssersD
- 32M. HoekD
- 14N. MunstersM
- 5R. BoonD
- 21A. OzcanF
- 31N. JanssenG
- 1T. WieggersG
- 2J. WieckhoffD
- 14Gijs BolkD
- 3R. BesselinkD
- 16N. MartensD
- 8D. WarmerdamM
- 21K. SymonsM
- 23M. DiemersM
- 10F. de JongM
- 7Bjorn van ZijlM
- 9J. KaniaF
- 17N. KanindaF
- 15T. KokD
- 40Kyano KwintF
- 22P. ReversonG
- 5L. SchoppemaD
- 28J. TriepM
- 27N. Ahmeti-GraincaM
- 31R. JonkersG
- 34Nic HartgersM
Form going into FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap
FC Eindhoven
- L2-4away to NAC Breda26 September 2026
- W3-1Emmen18 September 2026
- W2-1Dordrecht11 September 2026
De Graafschap
- W1-0Den Bosch27 September 2026
- L1-2NAC Breda20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Emmen11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | FC Eindhoven | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap
- 3 October 2026FC Eindhoven 2–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 3 April 2026FC Eindhoven 2–2 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 30 November 2025De Graafschap 2–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 11 April 2025FC Eindhoven 1–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
- 6 September 2024De Graafschap 2–0 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 19 January 2024FC Eindhoven 0–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap
FC Eindhoven
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
De Graafschap
GoalsAssists
- J. Kania50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.