Crewe vs Bristol Rovers League Two prediction & result
Final score: Crewe 3-1 Bristol Rovers.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Crewe, 30% draw, 33% Bristol Rovers — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Crewe at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crewe vs Bristol Rovers
Line-ups
- 1T. BoothG
- 2L. BillingtonD
- 6L. OffordD
- 12J. StephensonD
- 4Kyle UreD
- 19O. LuntM
- 10J. WhiteM
- 7J. LankesterM
- 11J. TabinerM
- 9J. MarchM
- 29A. ThibautF
- 14J. GibsonM
- 13I. LawlorG
- 23C. McNeillF
- 32L. MooreM
- 8C. ThomasM
- 36Joel EwusiM
- 30Stan DanceyD
- 1Brad YoungG
- 4K. BalmerD
- 5A. KilgourD
- 17C. KellyD
- 2T. JamesM
- 21R. SmallwoodM
- 6C. MolaM
- 3J. SparkesM
- 8R. Russell-DennyM
- 10B. KamwaF
- 19E. HarrisonF
- 9J. QuigleyF
- 14B. PurringtonD
- 7S. FordeF
- 27P. SanyaoluM
- 32Charlie BinnsG
- 22Keenan GoughM
Form going into Crewe vs Bristol Rovers
Crewe
- D1-1away to Rotherham26 September 2026
- D1-1Shrewsbury19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Colchester12 September 2026
Bristol Rovers
- W1-0Exeter City26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Gillingham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Grimsby12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 18 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crewe vs Bristol Rovers
- 3 October 2026Crewe 3–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 7 March 2026Bristol Rovers 2–1 CreweLeague Two
- 19 December 2025Crewe 1–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 12 December 2023Crewe 2–4 Bristol RoversFA Cup
- 1 May 2021Bristol Rovers 0–1 CreweLeague One
- 19 January 2021Crewe 3–2 Bristol RoversLeague One
Leading scorers: Crewe and Bristol Rovers
Crewe
GoalsAssists
- J. March32
Bristol Rovers
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.