Grimsby vs Shrewsbury League Two prediction & result
Final score: Grimsby 1-2 Shrewsbury.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Grimsby, 26% draw, 21% Shrewsbury — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Grimsby at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
Line-ups
- 31C. PymG
- 5H. RodgersD
- 17C. McJannetD
- 26E. PrutiD
- 3J. SweeneyD
- 7J. WalkerM
- 8Cian DoyleM
- 14J. AmaluzorM
- 4K. GreenM
- 30C. VernamM
- 39A. CookF
- 1H. CartwrightG
- 10S. FinchF
- 12J. FoulkesD
- 2M. KacurriD
- 9Iwan MorganF
- 11Ryley ReynoldsM
- 28F. CartwrightM
- 1William Michael BrookG
- 6S. StubbsD
- 5W. BoyleD
- 3J. RuffelsD
- 2L. HooleM
- 10T. SangM
- 7J. Turner-CookeM
- 11K. BerkoeM
- 18K. M. BrownM
- 9G. LloydF
- 8Isaac Andrew FletcherF
- 21will grayM
- 24L. SousaD
- 27J. GbodeF
- 4Isaac EnglandD
- 13J. DavisonF
- 23I. LeeD
- 32Cameron GregoryG
Form going into Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
Grimsby
- L1-2away to Newport County26 September 2026
- W2-0Crawley Town19 September 2026
- W2-0Bristol Rovers12 September 2026
Shrewsbury
- D2-2Colchester26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Crewe19 September 2026
- W2-0Northampton12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 13 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Grimsby vs Shrewsbury
- 3 October 2026Grimsby 1–2 ShrewsburyLeague Two
- 29 December 2025Grimsby 1–0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
- 9 December 2025Shrewsbury 1–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 12 August 2025Grimsby 3–1 ShrewsburyLeague Cup
- 15 December 2015Shrewsbury 1–0 GrimsbyFA Cup
- 7 December 2015Grimsby 0–0 ShrewsburyFA Cup
Leading scorers: Grimsby and Shrewsbury
Grimsby
GoalsAssists
- K. Green32
Shrewsbury
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.