Rochdale vs Swindon Town League Two prediction & result
Final score: Rochdale 1-0 Swindon Town.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Rochdale, 29% draw, 34% Swindon Town — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rochdale at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rochdale vs Swindon Town
Line-ups
- 1Nils RammingG
- 26S. SherringD
- 44A. FlintD
- 3Kaiden WilsonD
- 2C. TaskerD
- 8H. GilmourM
- 14E. FrancisM
- 18J. SmithM
- 17B. AdeekoM
- 45G. MiddletonM
- 39D. BrownF
- 33S. BeckwithD
- 9E. DieseruvweF
- 19L. HannantM
- 7C. HayesF
- 40I. HendersonF
- 11Z. Silcott-DuberryF
- 20Sam William John WallerG
- 1C. RipleyG
- 6J. BallD
- 5S. NegruD
- 21K. MajekodunmiD
- 34B. KirkmanD
- 7T. NicholsM
- 25J. ThomsonM
- 27A. MundaM
- 26D. ButlerM
- 23A. DrinanF
- 29A. HackfordF
- 14D. ButterworthM
- 8O. ClarkeM
- 18J. DebayoD
- 15J. HungboF
- 22J. PearmanM
- 12Lewis Moore WardG
- 39L. MillardF
Form going into Rochdale vs Swindon Town
Rochdale
- W2-1away to Fleetwood Town26 September 2026
- W2-0Oldham19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Walsall12 September 2026
Swindon Town
- D1-1Accrington Stanley26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City19 September 2026
- L0-4away to York12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rochdale vs Swindon Town
- 3 October 2026Rochdale 1–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 18 March 2023Rochdale 4–4 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 20 August 2022Swindon Town 3–0 RochdaleLeague Two
- 2 April 2022Rochdale 0–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 16 October 2021Swindon Town 2–2 RochdaleLeague Two
- 13 April 2021Rochdale 2–1 Swindon TownLeague One
Leading scorers: Rochdale and Swindon Town
Rochdale
GoalsAssists
- D. Brown32
Swindon Town
GoalsAssists
- A. Drinan50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.