Gillingham vs Newport County League Two prediction & result
Final score: Gillingham 0-0 Newport County.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Gillingham, 28% draw, 32% Newport County — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gillingham at 40% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gillingham vs Newport County
Line-ups
- 1O. WrightG
- 5A. SmithD
- 19O. BecklesD
- 26L. DobbsD
- 22N. FreemanM
- 24H. WaldockM
- 14R. McKenzieM
- 16J. BrophyM
- 12G. McClearyM
- 10Ronan HaleM
- 11L. SillahF
- 6E. ColemanM
- 23B. DackM
- 39T. EavesF
- 8A. LittleM
- 40R. LuthraG
- 18S. KendallM
- 20J. DaleyD
- 1J. WrightG
- 22C. NormanD
- 5L. JenkinsD
- 4K. CameronD
- 12Joe ThomasD
- 16M. JacobD
- 23M. Adu-PokuM
- 6C. BrennanM
- 24M. Dibley-DiasM
- 10H. BigginsM
- 27C. DoidgeF
- 19G. GarnerF
- 18A. LewisD
- 33S. MacDonaldG
- 34D. SassiD
- 8M. SmithM
- 17Alfie MerrittD
- 20Y. BambaF
Form going into Gillingham vs Newport County
Gillingham
- L0-3away to York26 September 2026
- W3-0Bristol Rovers19 September 2026
- W2-0Tranmere12 September 2026
Newport County
- W2-1Grimsby26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Accrington Stanley19 September 2026
- D1-1Fleetwood Town12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 16 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gillingham vs Newport County
- 3 October 2026Gillingham 0–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 17 January 2026Gillingham 3–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 1 November 2025Newport County 1–1 GillinghamFA Cup
- 20 September 2025Newport County 1–3 GillinghamLeague Two
- 4 March 2025Newport County 3–1 GillinghamLeague Two
- 22 October 2024Gillingham 0–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Gillingham and Newport County
Gillingham
GoalsAssists
- Ronan Hale41
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.