Exeter City vs Rotherham League Two prediction & result
Final score: Exeter City 1-0 Rotherham.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Exeter City, 30% draw, 29% Rotherham — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Exeter City at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Exeter City vs Rotherham
Line-ups
- 1J. BycroftG
- 2L. SamuelD
- 6J. TaylorD
- 5J. FitzwaterD
- 3L. WoodhouseD
- 31J. Doyle-HayesM
- 16C. CumminsM
- 25A. ScullyM
- 8T. PerryM
- 20George BirchM
- 10J. GordonF
- 19S. CoxF
- 7G. EdwardsM
- 14H. KiteM
- 18Liam OakesD
- 22Frankie PhillipsG
- 23Ethan SutherlandD
- 46L. CaylessD
- 13J. EyestoneG
- 12D. HallD
- 14Sonny AljofreeD
- 27D. IorfaD
- 5K. NgwenyaD
- 6O. AshleyM
- 15Jayce FitzgeraldM
- 17Marvin Marvellous KaletaM
- 4J. AusterfieldM
- 24J. BuyabuM
- 10P. MullinF
- 8K. SpenceM
- 2J. RaffertyD
- 23A. NemaneF
- 26H. DouglasM
- 1T. CannG
- 9T. BradshawF
- 16E. AdegboyegaD
Form going into Exeter City vs Rotherham
Exeter City
- L0-1away to Bristol Rovers26 September 2026
- D0-0Tranmere19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale12 September 2026
Rotherham
- D1-1Crewe26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton19 September 2026
- D3-3Salford City12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Exeter City vs Rotherham
- 3 October 2026Exeter City 1–0 RotherhamLeague Two
- 31 January 2026Exeter City 0–4 RotherhamLeague One
- 6 September 2025Rotherham 1–0 Exeter CityLeague One
- 15 March 2025Rotherham 1–1 Exeter CityLeague One
- 10 August 2024Exeter City 1–0 RotherhamLeague One
- 9 April 2013Rotherham 4–1 Exeter CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Exeter City and Rotherham
Exeter City
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Rotherham
GoalsAssists
- P. Mullin50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.