Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Cali 3-1 Alianza Valledupar.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Deportivo Cali, 28% draw, 18% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 1.85, 3.57 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Cali at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar
Line-ups
- 38A. RodríguezG
- 27F. ViáfaraD
- 12J. CalderaD
- 4Fernando Antonio Álvarez AmadorD
- 28E. VelascoD
- 15L. ChaverraM
- 5G. CuéllarM
- 20E. BelloM
- 10E. ReynosoM
- 19J. MartínezM
- 9J. DinennoF
- 70C. BaccaF
- 14A. Castillo ManyomaM
- 32Santiago Mondragón AlzateG
- 2J. MoyaD
- 23S. RodríguezF
- 16K. SandovalD
- 29Kevin CaicedoM
- 26J. TelloD
- 8D. GiraldoM
- 40E. EstebanG
- 22J. FigueroaD
- 3K. MorenoD
- 32J. ViverosD
- 33J. LassoD
- 6E. MezaM
- 7J. CastilloM
- 23I. AlbaM
- 10D. QuiñónesM
- 8J. MuñozM
- 18C. VergaraF
- 14C. VillegasF
- 13A. SimancasG
- 2Sebastián QuiñonesD
- 25J. PerezM
- 88L. PalaciosM
- 77M. MartínezF
- 55W. FernándezM
Form going into Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Cali
- W2-0Águilas Doradas28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Santa Fe23 September 2026
- W3-0Cucuta19 September 2026
Alianza Valledupar
- W2-1away to Jaguares27 September 2026
- L1-4Santa Fe19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chico16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 25 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar
- 3 October 2026Deportivo Cali 3–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 21 May 2026Deportivo Cali 1–0 Alianza ValleduparCopa Colombia
- 22 March 2026Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 28 October 2025Deportivo Cali 0–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 11 May 2025Alianza Valledupar 2–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 22 July 2024Deportivo Cali 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Cali and Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Cali
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez103
Alianza Valledupar
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.