Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Medellin 2-2 Millonarios.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Independiente Medellin, 30% draw, 31% Millonarios — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Medellin at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios
Line-ups
- 25E. ChauxG
- 30H. PalaciosD
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 19A. SimarraD
- 26E. MenaD
- 14B. PerlazaM
- 6D. MorenoM
- 11Y. GonzálezM
- 21A. MarteganiM
- 20J. MontañoM
- 32C. LucumiF
- 47Jaidinson Córdoba UrrutiaD
- 10D. CatañoM
- 5J. VarelaD
- 28Andres SolanoF
- 24N. ErazoM
- 1S. IchazoG
- 4K. MantillaD
- 31D. MorenoM
- 80Heider VallecillaF
- 1J. BurraiG
- 30S. del CastilloD
- 4S. BarreiroD
- 17J. AriasD
- 20D. BangueroD
- 55LeonaiM
- 13F. ChaverraM
- 28S. VegaM
- 7J. CuadradoM
- 23L. CastroF
- 10D. RuizF
- 12J. AguirreG
- 24J. AnguloF
- 11A. EstupiñánF
- 26A. LlinásD
- 35Sebastián MosqueraF
- 25D. QuinteroM
- 14D. SilvaM
- 22Sebastián Valencia IsazaD
- 43C. UparelaD
Form going into Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios
Independiente Medellin
- L0-2away to Junior27 September 2026
- W2-1Jaguares22 September 2026
Millonarios
- D1-1away to Atletico Nacional25 September 2026
- W3-0Chico19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cucuta14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 23 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios
- 30 September 2026Independiente Medellin 2–2 MillonariosPrimera A
- 2 February 2026Millonarios 0–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 3 August 2025Independiente Medellin 1–0 MillonariosPrimera A
- 16 February 2025Millonarios 0–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 19 July 2024Independiente Medellin 1–1 MillonariosPrimera A
- 21 January 2024Millonarios 5–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
Leading scorers: Independiente Medellin and Millonarios
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Millonarios
GoalsAssists
- A. Estupiñán174
- L. Castro114
- R. Contreras101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.