Junior vs Independiente Medellin Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Junior 2-0 Independiente Medellin.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Junior, 28% draw, 30% Independiente Medellin — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Junior at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Junior vs Independiente Medellin
Line-ups
- 1M. SilveiraG
- 98J. PeñaD
- 5D. RiveraD
- 23P. OrtízD
- 26Y. SúarezD
- 80F. ÁngelM
- 25D. CaicedoM
- 19F. FydriszewskiM
- 28G. CelisM
- 88B. CastrillónM
- 29T. GutiérrezF
- 77C. BarriosF
- 8Y. CharáM
- 30J. MartínezG
- 9G. PaivaF
- 7H. RiveraM
- 14J. RíosM
- 20J. SarmientoM
- 34Daniel SocarrasD
- 6D. VillarrealM
- 25E. ChauxG
- 30H. PalaciosD
- 4K. MantillaD
- 19A. SimarraD
- 26E. MenaD
- 34K. KlingerM
- 16H. LoboaM
- 6D. MorenoM
- 20J. MontañoM
- 21A. MarteganiF
- 9J. MedinaF
- 32C. LucumiF
- 31D. MorenoM
- 14B. PerlazaM
- 11Y. GonzálezF
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 1S. IchazoG
- 24N. ErazoM
- 47Jaidinson Córdoba UrrutiaD
- 5J. VarelaD
Form going into Junior vs Independiente Medellin
Junior
- W4-1away to Fortaleza FC20 September 2026
Independiente Medellin
- W2-1Jaguares22 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Junior vs Independiente Medellin
- 27 September 2026Junior 2–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 20 March 2026Independiente Medellin 2–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 8 December 2025Independiente Medellin 2–1 JuniorPrimera A
- 20 November 2025Junior 1–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
- 21 September 2025Independiente Medellin 2–2 JuniorPrimera A
- 11 June 2025Independiente Medellin 1–0 JuniorPrimera A
Leading scorers: Junior and Independiente Medellin
Junior
GoalsAssists
- L. Muriel162
Independiente Medellin
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.