Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Fortaleza FC 2-2 Deportes Tolima.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Fortaleza FC, 32% draw, 36% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Tolima at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima
Line-ups
- 1W. BarlasinaG
- 16J. CajaresD
- 6Y. DíazD
- 5J. Medina ObandoD
- 15S. CueroD
- 13Brandón Andrés Mejía FajardoM
- 32Mariano VázquezM
- 8S. NavarroM
- 28S. VivasM
- 25J. GarciaM
- 9J. HerreraF
- 29T. Wilke BraamsF
- 35Adrian Mosquera RenteríaD
- 7Í. MontañoF
- 2Andres MosqueraM
- 14L. PicoM
- 19F. PulicastroF
- 24J. SalasF
- 12C. SantanderG
- 27J. SinisterraF
- 1Neto VolpiG
- 28E. LópezD
- 3J. AnguloD
- 2A. AnguloD
- 30S. P. Barbosa GomezD
- 14H. MartínezM
- 17C. ArrietaM
- 24A. ParraM
- 8E. ValenciaM
- 20J. HernándezM
- 15S. AguayoF
- 32S. GuzmánM
- 21A. IbarguenD
- 13M. OrtegaG
- 4D. PedrozoD
- 80B. RoviraM
- 9L. SandovalF
- 29Néifer SánchezF
- 7J. CabezasF
- 10L. SánchezM
Form going into Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima
Fortaleza FC
- L1-4Junior20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares11 September 2026
Deportes Tolima
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima
- 27 September 2026Fortaleza FC 2–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 19 March 2026Deportes Tolima 2–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 8 December 2025Deportes Tolima 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 18 November 2025Fortaleza FC 0–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 31 August 2025Deportes Tolima 1–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 15 March 2025Fortaleza FC 1–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Fortaleza FC and Deportes Tolima
Fortaleza FC
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo94
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra84
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.