Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Jaguares 1-2 Alianza Valledupar.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Jaguares, 29% draw, 26% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Jaguares at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar
Line-ups
- 1D. MartínezG
- 14E. MartínezD
- 3J. MalagónD
- 29C. HenaoD
- 18L. JiménezD
- 5R. ColpaM
- 21R. BustamanteM
- 24S. CubidesM
- 16E. BeltránM
- 9J. MejiaM
- 11A. RenteríaF
- 7W. De La RosaF
- 19C. CantilloM
- 2A. AlfonsoM
- 27F. GraciaM
- 17D. LópezF
- 12F. MosqueraG
- 8D. RodríguezF
- 28D. ZuluagaM
- 10C. ÁlvarezM
- 40E. EstebanG
- 23I. AlbaD
- 3K. MorenoD
- 22J. FigueroaD
- 32J. ViverosD
- 10D. QuiñónesM
- 6E. MezaM
- 7J. CastilloM
- 33J. LassoM
- 18C. VergaraF
- 8J. MuñozF
- 13A. SimancasG
- 2Sebastián QuiñonesD
- 25J. PerezM
- 88L. PalaciosM
- 21Samuel NietoF
- 55W. FernándezM
- 14C. VillegasF
Form going into Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar
Jaguares
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026
Alianza Valledupar
- L1-4Santa Fe19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chico16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Jaguares | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 10 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar
- 27 September 2026Jaguares 1–2 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 19 March 2026Alianza Valledupar 1–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 10 November 2024Jaguares 0–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 21 April 2024Alianza Valledupar 2–1 JaguaresPrimera A
- 22 September 2023Jaguares 0–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 15 April 2023Alianza Valledupar 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
Leading scorers: Jaguares and Alianza Valledupar
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería103
Alianza Valledupar
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.