Atletico Nacional vs Junior Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Nacional 3-1 Junior.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Atletico Nacional, 27% draw, 23% Junior — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Nacional at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Nacional vs Junior
Line-ups
- 34F. ArmaniG
- 6A. RománD
- 3N. ParraD
- 16W. TesilloD
- 20M. CascoD
- 22E. CabreraM
- 26F. MarinM
- 27Y. PerlazaM
- 23J. RodríguezM
- 29A. SarmientoM
- 99I. PovedaF
- 10E. CardonaM
- 4C. HaydarD
- 30K. ParraM
- 24J. RosaF
- 8M. UribeM
- 80J. ZapataM
- 31X. RiosM
- 25L. MarquinezG
- 30J. MartínezG
- 98J. PeñaD
- 5D. RiveraD
- 23P. OrtízD
- 26Y. SúarezD
- 14J. RíosM
- 80F. ÁngelM
- 25D. CaicedoM
- 9G. PaivaM
- 88B. CastrillónM
- 29T. GutiérrezF
- 12J. AcostaG
- 77C. BarriosF
- 10L. MurielF
- 22Jesús RivasM
- 7H. RiveraM
- 20J. SarmientoM
- 34Daniel SocarrasD
- 6D. VillarrealM
- 28G. CelisM
Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Junior
Atletico Nacional
- D1-1Millonarios25 September 2026
- L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional de Bogota17 September 2026
Junior
- W2-0Independiente Medellin27 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 |
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Junior
- 1 October 2026Atletico Nacional 3–1 JuniorPrimera A
- 8 June 2026Atletico Nacional 1–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 3 June 2026Junior 3–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 11 March 2026Junior 0–4 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 30 November 2025Junior 2–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 27 November 2025Atletico Nacional 1–1 JuniorPrimera A
Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Junior
Atletico Nacional
GoalsAssists
- A. Morelos146
- A. Sarmiento86
Junior
GoalsAssists
- L. Muriel162
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.