3 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

North Macedonia vs Scotland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Nacional Arena Todor Proeski, Skopje
Referee: François Letexier, France
Full time0 – 2

Final score: North Macedonia 0-2 Scotland.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% North Macedonia, 31% draw, 44% Scotland — fair odds of 4.00, 3.23 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Scotland at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

North Macedonia0%Draw1%Scotland99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Oliver McBurnie
7'
⚽Kieron Bowieassist: Billy Gilmour
🔁Luka·Stankovskiout: Jani Atanasov
31'
🔁Sebastian Hereraout: Gjorge Dzhekov
31'
Jani Atanasov
37'
Gjorge Dzhekov
44'
Mario Mladenovski
45+1'
45'
🔁Oliver McBurnieout: Ryan Christie
51'
•Ben Gannon-Doak
🔁Enis Bardhiout: Agon Elezi
62'
🔁Bojan Ilievskiout: Ljupche Doriev
62'
63'
•Kieron Bowie
Bojan Miovski
68'
69'
⚽John McGinn (pen)
75'
🔁Kieron Bowieout: Robbie Ure
76'
🔁Ben Gannon-Doakout: Aaron Hickey
🔁Matej Gashtarovout: Hristijan Maleski
79'
Anes Meljichi
80'
83'
Scott Mckenna
88'
🔁Billy Gilmourout: Luke Graham

Match stats — North Macedonia vs Scotland

56%Possession44%
9Shots25
0On target10
1Corners9

Line-ups

North Macedonia 3-4-2-1
  • 23S. DimitrievskiG
  • 14M. MladenovskiD
  • 6V. MusliuD
  • 13Anes MeljichiD
  • 2Bojan IlievskiM
  • 16M. GashtarovM
  • 8L. StankovskiM
  • 3S. HerreraM
  • 10E. BardhiM
  • 7E. ElmasM
  • 9B. MiovskiF
Substitutes
  • 19L. DorievF
  • 18T. KostadinovM
  • 15A. EleziM
  • 21J. AtanasovM
  • 22H. MaleskiF
  • 20D. MitrovskiM
  • 17A. OmeragikjF
  • 11E. RastoderF
  • 12D. ShishkovskiG
Coach: G. Sedloski
Scotland 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 5S. WelshD
  • 16S. McKennaD
  • 4L. BinksD
  • 17B. DoakM
  • 19L. FergusonM
  • 8B. GilmourM
  • 3A. RobertsonM
  • 7J. McGinnM
  • 9O. McBurnieM
  • 20K. BowieF
Substitutes
  • 18L. GrahamD
  • 12L. KellyG
  • 15J. McPakeF
  • 14L. MillerM
  • 23Kristi MontgomeryM
  • 22N. PattersonD
  • 10R. UreF
  • 21S. BainG
  • 13Colby DonovanD
Coach: Sébastien Pocognoli

Form going into North Macedonia vs Scotland

North Macedonia

  • L0-2away to Slovenia29 September 2026
  • L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026

Scotland

  • L0-3Switzerland29 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Slovenia26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4North Macedonia4004010-100
3Scotland411235-24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: North Macedonia vs Scotland

  • 3 October 2026North Macedonia 0–2 ScotlandUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.