3 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Iceland vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Ice Rink Laugardalur, Reykjavik
Referee: Balazs Berke, Hungary
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Iceland 3-0 Bulgaria.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Iceland, 30% draw, 33% Bulgaria — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Iceland at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Iceland99%Draw1%Bulgaria0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Hörður Magnússon
4'
10'
Lukas Petkov
27'
Dimitar Velkovski
Mikael Ellertsson
32'
⚽Orri Steinn Óskarssonassist: Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
37'
🔁Arnór Sigurðssonout: Andri Guðjohnsen
45'
🔁Aron Gunnarssonout: Daniel Leo Gretarsson
45'
55'
🔁Ilia Gruevout: Emil Tsenov
55'
🔁Lukas Petkovout: Marin Plamenov·Petkov
59'
Atanas Iliev
⚽Orri Steinn Óskarssonassist: Mikael Anderson
60'
🔁Andri Fannar Baldurssonout: Victor Pálsson
62'
🔁Jón Dagur Þórsteinssonout: Gylfi Sigurðsson
62'
67'
🔁Asen Chandarovout: P. Panayotov
67'
🔁Georgi Rusevout: Zdravko Dimitrov
80'
Marin Plamenov·Petkov
🔁Hákon Arnar Haraldssonout: Logi Tomasson
82'
83'
🔁Atanas Ilievout: Vladimir Nikolov
⚽Orri Steinn Óskarsson (pen)
84'
⚽Mikael Ellertssonassist: Orri Steinn Óskarsson
90'

Match stats — Iceland vs Bulgaria

51%Possession49%
10Shots10
6On target3
9Corners1

Line-ups

Iceland 4-4-1-1
  • 12H. ValdimarssonG
  • 18M. AndersonD
  • 17A. GunnarssonD
  • 23H. MagnússonD
  • 19M. EllertssonD
  • 21A. SigurðssonM
  • 6A. BaldurssonM
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 11J. ÞorsteinssonM
  • 7H. HaraldssonM
  • 9O. ÓskarssonF
Substitutes
  • 3D. GrétarssonD
  • 13A. EinarssonG
  • 22A. GuðjohnsenF
  • 15D. GuðjohnsenF
  • 20Þ. HelgasonM
  • 4V. PálssonD
  • 1R. RúnarssonG
  • 10G. SigurðssonM
  • 16S. ÞórðarsonM
Coach: A. Gunnlaugsson
Bulgaria 4-4-1-1
  • 1D. NaumovG
  • 19I. TuritsovD
  • 5K. DimitrovD
  • 13S. VelkovD
  • 21D. VelkovskiD
  • 20L. PetkovM
  • 8A. KraevM
  • 4I. GruevM
  • 11G. RusevM
  • 14A. ChandarovM
  • 9A. IlievF
Substitutes
  • 23A. BozhevG
  • 6E. TsenovD
  • 2Y. StoyanovM
  • 22K. StoyanovM
  • 15H. PetrovD
  • 16M. PetkovF
  • 17V. NikolovF
  • 12D. MitovG
  • 3A. HristovD
Coach: A. Ribarski

Form going into Iceland vs Bulgaria

Iceland

  • W3-0away to Luxembourg29 September 2026
  • D1-1Estonia26 September 2026

Bulgaria

  • D0-0Estonia29 September 2026
  • L1-2Luxembourg26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Iceland422071+68
3Bulgaria411235-24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Iceland vs Bulgaria

  • 3 October 2026Iceland 3–0 BulgariaUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Iceland and Bulgaria

Iceland

GoalsAssists

  • O. Óskarsson32

Bulgaria

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.