3 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Finland vs Albania UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Helsinki Olympic Stadium, Helsinki
Referee: Robert Hennessy, Ireland
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Finland 2-1 Albania.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Finland, 31% draw, 29% Albania — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Finland at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Finland98%Draw2%Albania0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
⚽Rey Manajassist: Kristjan Asllani
22'
Etrit Berisha
25'
🔁Arber Hoxhaout: Alen Sherri
⚽Leo Walta
26'
26'
Alen Sherri
Kaan Kairinen
40'
🔁Kaan Kairinenout: Glen Kamara
45'
45'
🔁Rey Manajout: Mirlind Daku
🔁Daniel Håkansout: Oiva Jukkola
62'
🔁Tony Miettinenout: Leo Väisänen
62'
65'
🔁Ernest Muciout: Myrto Uzuni
⚽Leo Walta
71'
74'
Berat Djimsiti
77'
🔁Stavros Piliosout: Anis·Mehmeti
77'
🔁Kristjan Asllaniout: Juljan Shehu
80'
Myrto Uzuni
80'
Anis·Mehmeti
81'
Rolando Maran
🔁Leo Waltaout: Onni Valakari
82'
🔁Adam Markhievout: Matti Peltola
89'

Match stats — Finland vs Albania

60%Possession40%
11Shots14
3On target5
7Corners6

Line-ups

Finland 4-3-3
  • 1L. HrádeckýG
  • 3A. StåhlD
  • 4T. MiettinenD
  • 5S. MiettinenD
  • 13J. LähteenmäkiD
  • 14K. KairinenM
  • 11A. MarhievM
  • 10L. WaltaM
  • 9A. SvanbäckF
  • 20J. PohjanpaloF
  • 22D. HåkansF
Substitutes
  • 19B. KällmanF
  • 21O. JukkolaM
  • 23L. BergströmG
  • 6G. KamaraM
  • 18T. KeskinenF
  • 17R. MahutaD
  • 2M. PeltolaD
  • 12V. SinisaloG
  • 16A. SuhonenM
Coach: J. Friis
Albania 3-4-3
  • 1E. BerishaG
  • 18A. IsmajliD
  • 6B. DjimsitiD
  • 3M. MitajD
  • 4E. HysajM
  • 20Y. RamadaniM
  • 8K. AsllaniM
  • 22S. PiliosM
  • 10E. MuçiF
  • 7R. ManajF
  • 21A. HoxhaF
Substitutes
  • 23M. DajsinaniG
  • 19M. DakuF
  • 2F. FetaiM
  • 15M. KumbullaD
  • 9A. MehmetiM
  • 17T. SeferiF
  • 16J. ShehuM
  • 12A. SherriG
  • 14C. ShpendiF
Coach: R. Maran

Form going into Finland vs Albania

Finland

  • D0-0Belarus29 September 2026
  • W7-0away to San Marino26 September 2026

Albania

  • W3-0away to San Marino29 September 2026
  • W2-0Belarus26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Finland421192+77
1Albania430183+59

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Finland vs Albania

  • 3 October 2026Finland 2–1 AlbaniaUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Finland and Albania

Finland

GoalsAssists

  • L. Walta41
  • J. Pohjanpalo30

Albania

GoalsAssists

  • K. Asllani31

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.