3 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Belarus vs San Marino UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest
Referee: Alexandros Tsakalidis, Greece
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Belarus 4-0 San Marino.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Belarus, 24% draw, 14% San Marino — fair odds of 1.61, 4.17 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Belarus at 62% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Belarus99%Draw1%San Marino0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
Nicola Nanni
42'
Alessandro Golinucci
45'
🔁Alessandro Golinucciout: Marcello Mularoni
🔁Timofey Simanenkaout: Vitali Lisakovich
45'
⚽Artem Kontsevoyassist: Kirill Pechenin
46'
Roman Begunov
54'
🔁Roman Begunovout: vladislav kalinin
55'
🔁Valeri Gromykoout: Artem Shumanskiy
55'
57'
Nicholas Giacopetti
⚽Artem Shumanskiyassist: Kirill Pechenin
65'
67'
🔁S. Giocondiout: Alessandro Tosi
67'
🔁Lorenzo Lazzariout: Samuel·Pancotti
⚽Max Ebongassist: Kirill Pechenin
68'
🔁Max Ebongout: Valery Bocherov
69'
73'
Lorenzo·Capicchioni
🔁Trofim Melnichenkoout: German Barkovskiy
74'
75'
🔁giacomo benvenutiout: F. Fabbri
78'
Marco pasolini
83'
🔁Lorenzo·Capicchioniout: C. Meloni
German Barkovskiy
85'
vladislav kalinin
86'
⚽Artem Kontsevoyassist: Artem Shumanskiy
88'

Match stats — Belarus vs San Marino

60%Possession40%
15Shots10
5On target4
6Corners4

Line-ups

Belarus 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. PavlyuchenkoG
  • 6R. BegunovD
  • 20Z. VolkovD
  • 13K. GomanovD
  • 2K. PecheninD
  • 9M. EbongM
  • 14E. YablonskiyM
  • 22A. KontsevoyM
  • 10V. GromykoM
  • 8T. SimanenkaM
  • 23T. MelnichenkoF
Substitutes
  • 11G. BarkovskiyF
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 4V. BocherovM
  • 15D. GalyataM
  • 12A. KudravetsG
  • 16A. KovalevM
  • 17V. LisakovichF
  • 5V. KalininD
  • 19A. LukashovD
Coach: V. Goncharenko
San Marino 4-4-2
  • 1E. ColomboG
  • 2G. BenvenutiD
  • 5M. CevoliD
  • 15M. PasoliniD
  • 3S. GiocondiD
  • 10S. ZannoniM
  • 8L. CapicchioniM
  • 17A. GolinucciM
  • 21L. LazzariM
  • 11N. GiacopettiF
  • 9N. NanniF
Substitutes
  • 22M. MularoniM
  • 6D. RossiD
  • 12A. TosiD
  • 23M. De AngelisG
  • 4F. FabbriD
  • 14Fausto Marino Salicioni OrtizF
  • 20G. BugliD
  • 18Balda Enea DellaM
  • 13Lyes HoëlG
Coach: R. Cevoli

Form going into Belarus vs San Marino

Belarus

  • D0-0away to Finland29 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Albania26 September 2026

San Marino

  • L0-3Albania29 September 2026
  • L0-7Finland26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Belarus421152+37
4San Marino4004116-150

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Belarus vs San Marino

  • 3 October 2026Belarus 4–0 San MarinoUEFA Nations League
  • 18 November 2018San Marino 0–2 BelarusUEFA Nations League
  • 8 September 2018Belarus 5–0 San MarinoUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.