Spain vs Czechia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Spain 3-1 Czechia.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Spain, 20% draw, 13% Czechia — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spain at 67% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Spain vs Czechia
Line-ups
- 1David RayaG
- 4Iván FresnedaD
- 3Robin Le NormandD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 5Fran GarcíaD
- 10Dani OlmoM
- 16RodriM
- 20PedriM
- 19Lamine YamalF
- 17Roberto FernándezF
- 15Álex BaenaF
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 9FermínM
- 2D. HuijsenD
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 6Mikel MerinoM
- 7Víctor MuñozF
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF
- 11Yeremy PinoM
- 12Marc PubillD
- 23A. KinskýG
- 22M. SáčekD
- 6Š. ChaloupekD
- 7L. KrejčíD
- 5J. SlámaD
- 21A. KrálM
- 19R. MacekM
- 18M. RadostaM
- 13L. AmbrosM
- 20O. LingrM
- 10A. HložekF
- 16L. HorníčekG
- 4R. HranáčD
- 1M. KovářG
- 2O. KričfalušiD
- 9R. NaderiF
- 8M. SadílekM
- 15M. ŠubertM
- 11D. VašulínF
- 14M. VitíkD
Form going into Spain vs Czechia
Spain
- W4-1Croatia29 September 2026
- W3-2away to England26 September 2026
Czechia
- L0-2England29 September 2026
- L1-2Croatia26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | Czechia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spain vs Czechia
- 3 October 2026Spain 3–1 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
- 12 June 2022Spain 2–0 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
- 5 June 2022Czechia 2–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 13 June 2016Spain 1–0 CzechiaEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Spain and Czechia
Spain
GoalsAssists
- Lamine Yamal41
- Mikel Merino31
Czechia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.