3 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Switzerland vs Slovenia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Swissporarena, Lucerne
Referee: Ivan Kružliak, Slovakia
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Switzerland, 28% draw, 22% Slovenia — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Switzerland at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Zan Vipotnikassist: Aljosa Matko
⚽Erik Janža (OG)
10'
23'
Zan Vipotnik
28'
David Zec
29'
Vanja Drkusic
⚽Dan Ndoye
38'
Michel Aebischer
40'
45'
🔁Vanja Drkusicout: David Brekalo
58'
Jaka Bijol
64'
🔁Aljosa Matkoout: Tjas Begic
64'
🔁Sandi Lovricout: Adam Gnezda Čerin
🔁Ricardo Rodríguezout: Sascha Britschgi
67'
🔁Michel Aebischerout: Djibril Sow
67'
🔁Zeki Amdouniout: Winsley Boteli Mokango
77'
78'
🔁Zan Vipotnikout: Žan Celar
79'
Erik Janža
🔁Zachary Athekameout: Adrian Bajrami
87'
🔁Dan Ndoyeout: Fabian Rieder
87'
89'
🔁Danijel Sturmout: Tomi Horvat

Match stats — Switzerland vs Slovenia

67%Possession33%
13Shots10
6On target3
4Corners3

Line-ups

Switzerland 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. KobelG
  • 16Z. AthekameD
  • 4N. ElvediD
  • 5M. AkanjiD
  • 13R. RodríguezD
  • 14A. JashariM
  • 8R. FreulerM
  • 20M. AebischerM
  • 9J. ManzambiM
  • 11D. NdoyeM
  • 10Z. AmdouniF
Substitutes
  • 19Winsley Boteli MokangoF
  • 7Joël MonteiroF
  • 12Y. MvogoG
  • 21M. KellerG
  • 18E. CömertD
  • 2S. BritschgiD
  • 22F. RiederM
  • 3A. BajramiD
  • 23A. SanchesM
Coach: M. Yakin
Slovenia 5-4-1
  • 1J. OblakG
  • 2Ž. KarničnikD
  • 21V. DrkušićD
  • 6J. BijolD
  • 17D. ZecD
  • 13E. JanžaD
  • 20A. MatkoM
  • 4M. ZabukovnikM
  • 8S. LovrićM
  • 15D. ŠturmM
  • 18Z. VipotnikF
Substitutes
  • 23D. BrekaloD
  • 11Ž. CelarF
  • 10T. ElšnikM
  • 22A. ČerinM
  • 19T. HorvatM
  • 5S. KuzmićD
  • 14T. SvetlinM
  • 7J. UrbančičD
  • 16I. VekičG
Coach: B. Cesar

Form going into Switzerland vs Slovenia

Switzerland

  • W3-0away to Scotland29 September 2026
  • W3-0away to North Macedonia26 September 2026

Slovenia

  • W2-0North Macedonia29 September 2026
  • D0-0Scotland26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Switzerland4400111+1012
2Slovenia421153+27

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Switzerland vs Slovenia

  • 3 October 2026Switzerland 2–1 SloveniaUEFA Nations League
  • 13 October 2025Slovenia 0–0 SwitzerlandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 8 September 2025Switzerland 3–0 SloveniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe

Leading scorers: Switzerland and Slovenia

Switzerland

GoalsAssists

  • Z. Amdouni31
  • D. Ndoye23

Slovenia

GoalsAssists

  • A. Matko22

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.