3 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Estonia vs Luxembourg UEFA Nations League prediction & result

A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Referee: Paweł Raczkowski, Poland
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Estonia, 32% draw, 37% Luxembourg — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Luxembourg at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estonia97%Draw3%Luxembourg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rasmus Peetson
5'
29'
Enes Mahmutovic
Jürgen Henn
44'
62'
🔁Aiman Dardariout: Hamza Kadamani
62'
🔁Enzo dos Santosout: Sebastien Thill
🔁Mattias Männilaanout: karel mustmaa
66'
68'
Omar Natami
🔁Kevor Palumetsout: Markus Soomets
72'
73'
🔁Vincent Thillout: Timothé Rupil
Märten Kuusk
73'
78'
Vahid Selimović
🔁Mattias Käitout: Mihkel Ainsalu
80'
Karol Mets
82'
83'
🔁Florian Bohnertout: Mathias Olesen
83'
🔁Enes Mahmutovicout: Eldin Dzogovic
84'
Leandro Barreiro
85'
Eldin Dzogovic
87'
Mathias Olesen
Markus Poom
88'

Match stats — Estonia vs Luxembourg

46%Possession54%
14Shots8
9On target2
7Corners3

Line-ups

Estonia 5-3-2
  • 12M. IgonenG
  • 6R. PeetsonD
  • 3M. PaskotšiD
  • 2M. KuuskD
  • 18K. MetsD
  • 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
  • 10K. PalumetsM
  • 20M. PoomM
  • 4M. KäitM
  • 14P. KristalF
  • 17M. MännilaanF
Substitutes
  • 11M. AinsaluM
  • 1K. HeinG
  • 23F. LiivakM
  • 9Karel MustmaaF
  • 7R. SaarmaM
  • 13J. SalisteD
  • 15M. SkvortsovM
  • 8M. SoometsM
  • 21A. TammF
Coach: J. Henn
Luxembourg 4-1-4-1
  • 1A. MorisG
  • 4F. BohnertD
  • 3E. MahmutovićD
  • 5V. SelimovićD
  • 13D. CarlsonD
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 15Omar NatamiM
  • 11V. ThillM
  • 8E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
  • 7Aiman DardariM
  • 9Jayson Videira PereiraF
Substitutes
  • 2E. DžogovićD
  • 14E. VeigaD
  • 18S. IkeneD
  • 17H. KadamaniM
  • 23T. KipsG
  • 22M. MartinsD
  • 19M. OlesenM
  • 12T. Pereira CardosoG
  • 10T. RupilM
Coach: J. Strasser

Form going into Estonia vs Luxembourg

Estonia

  • D0-0away to Bulgaria29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Iceland26 September 2026

Luxembourg

  • L0-3Iceland29 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Bulgaria26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Estonia413021+16
4Luxembourg410327-53

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estonia vs Luxembourg

  • 3 October 2026Estonia 1–0 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.