3 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Croatia vs England UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stadion Rujevica, Rijeka
Referee: Sven Jablonski, Germany
Full time0 – 7

Final score: Croatia 0-7 England.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Croatia, 28% draw, 45% England — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts England at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Croatia1%Draw0%England99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Harry Kaneassist: Jude Bellingham
21'
⚽Jude Bellinghamassist: Anthony Gordon
39'
⚽Anthony Gordonassist: Jarell Quansah
45'
⚽Bukayo Sakaassist: Jude Bellingham
🔁Petar Musaout: Igor Matanovic
45'
🔁Petar Sučićout: Mario Pašalić
45'
🔁Martin Baturinaout: Nikola Vlašić
45'
53'
⚽Harry Kaneassist: Elliot Anderson
🔁Luka Modrićout: Kristijan Jakić
57'
68'
⚽Bukayo Sakaassist: Harry Kane
Mateo Kovačić
68'
70'
🔁Anthony Gordonout: Eberechi Eze
70'
🔁Alex Scottout: James Garner
70'
🔁Harry Kaneout: Morgan Rogers
🔁Josip Stanišićout: Josip Šutalo
76'
79'
🔁Elliot Andersonout: Morgan Gibbs-White
79'
🔁Lewis Hallout: Myles Lewis-Skelly
87'
⚽Morgan Rogersassist: Jude Bellingham

Match stats — Croatia vs England

36%Possession64%
12Shots19
1On target10
1Corners6

Line-ups

Croatia 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. LivakovićG
  • 2J. StanišićD
  • 5L. VuškovićD
  • 4J. GvardiolD
  • 14I. PerišićD
  • 10L. ModrićM
  • 8M. KovačićM
  • 7F. IvanovićM
  • 17P. SučićM
  • 16M. BaturinaM
  • 11P. MusaF
Substitutes
  • 23D. KotarskiG
  • 18K. JakićM
  • 9A. KramarićF
  • 20I. MatanovićF
  • 22J. MišićM
  • 12I. PandurG
  • 15Mario PasalicM
  • 19Marco PasalicF
  • 3I. SmolčićD
Coach: S. Bilić
England 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PickfordG
  • 22J. QuansahD
  • 5E. KonsaD
  • 6M. GuéhiD
  • 3L. HallD
  • 8E. AndersonM
  • 4A. ScottM
  • 7B. SakaM
  • 10J. BellinghamM
  • 11A. GordonM
  • 9H. KaneF
Substitutes
  • 13J. TraffordG
  • 23J. SteeleG
  • 17M. RogersM
  • 14R. NgumohaF
  • 16M. Lewis-SkellyD
  • 20M. Gibbs-WhiteM
  • 18J. GarnerM
  • 21E. EzeM
  • 12T. ChalobahD
Coach: T. Tuchel

Form going into Croatia vs England

Croatia

  • L1-4away to Spain29 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Czechia26 September 2026

England

  • W2-0away to Czechia29 September 2026
  • L2-3Spain26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Croatia4103414-103
2England4301143+119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Croatia vs England

  • 3 October 2026Croatia 0–7 EnglandUEFA Nations League
  • 17 June 2026England 4–2 CroatiaWorld Cup
  • 13 June 2021England 1–0 CroatiaEuro Championship
  • 18 November 2018England 2–1 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
  • 12 October 2018Croatia 0–0 EnglandUEFA Nations League
  • 11 July 2018Croatia 2–1 EnglandWorld Cup

The full Croatia vs England record →

Leading scorers: Croatia and England

Croatia

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

England

GoalsAssists

  • H. Kane61
  • A. Gordon31

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.