Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Cuiaba 2-0 Ponte Preta.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Cuiaba, 22% draw, 12% Ponte Preta — fair odds of 1.52, 4.55 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cuiaba at 66% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta
Line-ups
- 1João CarlosG
- 91LuisãoD
- 5CalebeD
- 14EricD
- 2Igor InocêncioM
- 20David MiguelM
- 30RaulM
- 36LorenzoM
- 41KauanM
- 77Jean DiasM
- 90Fábio GomesF
- 96Pedro HenriqueF
- 97Luiz OtávioM
- 26João VitorM
- 12BusattoG
- 22Pedro Carminatti JacominM
- 50Pedro Felipetto Colen BarcellosM
- 70Wesley DiasM
- 29Vinicius PeixotoF
- 11ElielF
- 30ViniciusG
- 23S. PalaciosD
- 15Gabriel Caran de OliveiraD
- 44Gustavo AlmeidaD
- 2JulioM
- 16JuanM
- 22DenisM
- 13Diego PorfírioM
- 7Emanuell Silva FerreiraM
- 9BrandãoF
- 18David da HoraF
- 6Nicolas SilvaM
- 32Felipe Di Mauro Reis CoutinhoD
- 35Gustavo LopesM
- 4Diego Monteiro LeaoD
- 20Thevyn Dos Anjos SouzaF
- 17MiguelM
- 1Guilherme VianaG
- 5Rodrigo SouzaM
- 19DaniloF
Form going into Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta
Cuiaba
- L0-3away to CRB27 September 2026
- W3-0Nautico Recife22 September 2026
Ponte Preta
- L0-2away to Botafogo SP29 September 2026
- W1-0CRB20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cuiaba | 33 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 73 | -55 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta
- 3 October 2026Cuiaba 2–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 9 June 2026Ponte Preta 1–2 CuiabaSerie B
- 11 January 2021Ponte Preta 2–2 CuiabaSerie B
- 9 October 2020Cuiaba 2–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 28 September 2019Ponte Preta 3–0 CuiabaSerie B
- 1 June 2019Cuiaba 1–3 Ponte PretaSerie B
Leading scorers: Cuiaba and Ponte Preta
Cuiaba
GoalsAssists
- Kauan63
Ponte Preta
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.