Avai vs Ceara Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Avai 0-1 Ceara.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Avai, 29% draw, 42% Ceara — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ceara at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Avai vs Ceara
Line-ups
- 94Bruno FerreiraG
- 22João Vitor Cardoso de SouzaD
- 3AllysonD
- 40ReynaldoD
- 36DGD
- 5Del PiageM
- 8Luiz HenriqueM
- 14Daniel PenhaM
- 95WendersonM
- 10Jean LucasM
- 9Léo GamalhoF
- 1Igor BohnG
- 18HyanM
- 23Gabriel CiprianoF
- 15Guilherme VargasD
- 70GasparF
- 38Jefferson MacielD
- 2WallisonD
- 30Kauã Gabriel Pereira Dos SantosF
- 66QuaresmaD
- 1RichardG
- 2Rafael RamosD
- 4Luiz OtávioD
- 13Luiz OtávioD
- 31BryanD
- 26RichardsonM
- 81Joao GabrielM
- 60EnzoM
- 40RichardM
- 8Matheus AraújoM
- 99LuccaF
- 7Giovanni PavaniM
- 77Lenny LobatoF
- 94R. LópezF
- 10L. MugniM
- 29VinaM
- 25Vinicius ZanoceloM
- 23Caíque FrançaG
- 16Rian Bonfim De SantanaF
- 44Kaiky Cabral LeãoM
Form going into Avai vs Ceara
Avai
- L0-3away to Criciuma27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Goias20 September 2026
Ceara
- D2-2away to Operario-PR26 September 2026
- W2-1Novorizontino18 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Avai | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
| 15 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Avai vs Ceara
- 3 October 2026Avai 0–1 CearaSerie B
- 10 June 2026Ceara 2–1 AvaiSerie B
- 3 November 2024Ceara 2–0 AvaiSerie B
- 20 July 2024Avai 0–1 CearaSerie B
- 22 October 2023Avai 1–0 CearaSerie B
- 28 June 2023Ceara 0–0 AvaiSerie B
Leading scorers: Avai and Ceara
Avai
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Melk75
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.