Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo SP 0-1 Vila Nova.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Botafogo SP, 29% draw, 36% Vila Nova — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vila Nova at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova
Line-ups
- 1Victor SouzaG
- 31Pedro HenriqueD
- 3EricsonD
- 4VilarD
- 6Patrick BreyD
- 8Everton MorelliM
- 5L. MacielM
- 30Zé HugoM
- 10Rafael GavaM
- 16Matheus SalesM
- 9HygorF
- 27DarlanD
- 7KelvinF
- 2JonathanD
- 29Thiago HenriqueM
- 23Wesley Pinheiro SantosF
- 20Yuri Felipe Santos da ConceiçãoM
- 26Felipe VieiraD
- 12JordanG
- 17Guilherme QueirózF
- 1Helton LeiteG
- 22HaynerD
- 4Douglas MendesD
- 3Tiago PagnussatD
- 6HigorD
- 5João VieiraM
- 15DuduM
- 17Everton GaldinoM
- 10Marquinhos GabrielM
- 99JandersonM
- 7André LuísF
- 20Nathan CamargoM
- 9LincolnF
- 8Willian MaranhãoM
- 29DalbersonG
- 31DodôM
- 11Ryan LimaF
- 70Emerson UrsoF
- 21Higor MeritãoM
- 13Willian FormigaD
Form going into Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
- W2-0Ponte Preta29 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club MG19 September 2026
Vila Nova
- W2-0Londrina25 September 2026
- W1-0America Mineiro18 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 41 |
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 61 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova
- 3 October 2026Botafogo SP 0–1 Vila NovaSerie B
- 8 June 2026Vila Nova 1–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 25 August 2025Botafogo SP 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 20 April 2025Vila Nova 2–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 28 September 2024Vila Nova 1–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 16 June 2024Botafogo SP 1–0 Vila NovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Botafogo SP and Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
GoalsAssists
- Everton Morelli92
- Hygor80
Vila Nova
GoalsAssists
- Janderson88
- André Luís82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.