Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente Rivadavia 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Independiente Rivadavia, 28% draw, 28% Gimnasia La Plata — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente Rivadavia at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata
Line-ups
- 30Nicolás BolcatoG
- 14L. GómezD
- 2L. CostaD
- 42S. StuderD
- 3J. ElordiD
- 10M. FernándezM
- 5T. BottariM
- 25J. FlorentínM
- 77L. SequeiraM
- 43F. SartoriF
- 17M. SalasF
- 27D. CregoM
- 8L. BuccaM
- 21Emmanuel GómezG
- 34S. MoreyraM
- 13A. OsellaD
- 7V. RamisF
- 20A. RiepM
- 11G. RíosM
- 40I. VillalbaD
- 23N. InsfránG
- 31B. Barros SchelottoD
- 4R. GiampaoliD
- 21E. MartínezD
- 24P. SilvaD
- 5I. MiramónM
- 18M. SeoaneM
- 9M. ZalazarM
- 8I. FernándezM
- 17L. JansonM
- 29A. AuzmendiF
- 19A. ColazoF
- 35J. CortazzoD
- 36L. LamellaD
- 16A. MaxM
- 22M. MellusoD
- 7M. PanaroF
- 20J. PérezM
- 25A. SteimbachM
- 32M. TorresF
Form going into Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata
Independiente Rivadavia
- W1-0away to Barracas Central21 September 2026
- W4-3Aldosivi12 September 2026
- L1-3away to River Plate6 September 2026
Gimnasia La Plata
- D2-2Banfield19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Argentinos Juniors13 September 2026
- W2-1Tigre5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Independiente Rivadavia | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 18 |
| 6 | Gimnasia La Plata | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata
- 3 October 2026Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 15 March 2026Gimnasia La Plata 2–3 Independiente RivadaviaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 July 2024Independiente Rivadavia 1–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 January 2024Gimnasia La Plata 2–3 Independiente RivadaviaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 29 March 2013Gimnasia La Plata 3–0 Independiente RivadaviaPrimera Nacional
- 29 September 2012Independiente Rivadavia 1–1 Gimnasia La PlataPrimera Nacional
The full Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia La Plata record →
Leading scorers: Independiente Rivadavia and Gimnasia La Plata
Independiente Rivadavia
GoalsAssists
- A. Arce91
- F. Sartori80
Gimnasia La Plata
GoalsAssists
- M. Torres92
- A. Auzmendi73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.