Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 3-0 San Lorenzo.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Defensa Y Justicia, 33% draw, 27% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Defensa Y Justicia at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
Line-ups
- 1M. BorgognoG
- 28V. LozaD
- 29D. FernándezD
- 21D. MartínezD
- 3F. RománD
- 15S. SosaM
- 24J. GutiérrezM
- 19D. BarbonaM
- 22M. PorcelM
- 26J. LuccoM
- 9L. FernándezF
- 27D. BlancoM
- 36L. AmadéG
- 6E. BurdinD
- 30D. DomínguezD
- 17A. HauschF
- 5J. LópezM
- 45T. MartinezM
- 20N. PalavecinoM
- 11Tiziano PerrotaF
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 16G. CorujoD
- 35A. CordobaD
- 24N. TripichioM
- 15M. CardilloM
- 5I. PerruzziM
- 6M. de RitisM
- 38F. FaríasM
- 9A. CuelloF
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 62G. AlassiaM
- 20F. AltamiranoG
- 19E. AmorD
- 10Facundo GulliM
- 18D. HerazoF
- 32E. HerreraD
- 14A. LadstatterF
- 42F. LorenzónD
- 11M. RealiF
Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
Defensa Y Justicia
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago18 September 2026
- W2-0Gimnasia Mendoza11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lanus6 September 2026
San Lorenzo
- L0-2Boca Juniors20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Independiente13 September 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 24 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo
- 3 October 2026Defensa Y Justicia 3–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 March 2026San Lorenzo 2–5 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
- 22 September 2024Defensa Y Justicia 0–0 San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
- 7 April 2024San Lorenzo 0–2 Defensa Y JusticiaCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 24 November 2023Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 San LorenzoCopa Argentina
- 12 November 2023Defensa Y Justicia 0–1 San LorenzoCopa de la Liga Profesional
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.