Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Boca Juniors 3-0 Union Santa Fe.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Boca Juniors, 27% draw, 23% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Boca Juniors at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe
Line-ups
- 12L. BreyG
- 17L. LozanoD
- 2L. Di LolloD
- 42F. HerreraD
- 3L. BlancoD
- 18M. DelgadoM
- 5L. ParedesM
- 25S. AscacíbarM
- 20A. VelascoM
- 22S. VillaM
- 16M. MerentielF
- 27M. BraidaM
- 15W. AlarcónM
- 32A. CostaD
- 4N. FigalD
- 19L. FloresF
- 30J. GarcíaG
- 9M. GiménezF
- 24D. GorositoD
- 7C. PalaciosM
- 21M. MansillaG
- 15J. PintadoD
- 4M. RochaD
- 26J. LudueñaD
- 18L. AyalaD
- 17J. MosqueiraM
- 20J. PalaciosM
- 11M. Luna DialeM
- 10V. MalcorraM
- 22B. CuelloM
- 25C. TarragonaF
- 27T. RubioD
- 43E. RamírezF
- 12B. PittónD
- 34Mateo PeresuttiM
- 40L. MeuliG
- 5L. MenossiM
- 33I. IslaD
- 8E. GiacconeM
- 19M. EstigarribiaF
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe
Boca Juniors
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza5 September 2026
Union Santa Fe
- L1-2Independiente19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Talleres Cordoba12 September 2026
- W3-2Instituto Cordoba8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 21 |
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe
- 3 October 2026Boca Juniors 3–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 16 March 2026Union Santa Fe 1–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 18 July 2025Boca Juniors 1–1 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 29 January 2025Union Santa Fe 1–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 21 November 2024Boca Juniors 1–0 Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
- 6 March 2024Union Santa Fe 1–0 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Union Santa Fe
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel82
Union Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- C. Tarragona141
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.