Eldense vs Oviedo Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Eldense 4-1 Oviedo.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Eldense, 31% draw, 40% Oviedo — fair odds of 3.45, 3.23 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eldense vs Oviedo
Line-ups
- 1Ramón VilaG
- 19A. IbarrondoD
- 5Alex SerradellD
- 4F. SmandD
- 2Iker RecioD
- 15Carlos GuiraoM
- 18Guillermo MachoM
- 10FidelM
- 24Javi MartínezM
- 20Waldo RubioM
- 11Manu NietoF
- 34J. OlaizolaD
- 13JuanpaG
- 29Dinis RodriguesF
- 7Jorge RastrojoF
- 22J. YandaD
- 8Marcos BustilloM
- 6Borja CalvoM
- 17Jesús ClementeD
- 3Juan LariosD
- 1Miguel NarváezG
- 21David JiménezD
- 12Dani CalvoD
- 23Carlos DomínguezD
- 15S. RodriguezD
- 5Y. DidiM
- 6Dani VillahermosaM
- 8Mikel GotiM
- 10Alberto ReinaM
- 11Jacobo GonzálezF
- 20Pablo SáenzF
- 22Nacho VidalD
- 32Enzo PerezM
- 18V. MingoF
- 28D. MenendezM
- 30Marco EstebanD
- 3Juan CruzD
- 4David CostasD
- 2AisarM
- 33Óscar de la HeraF
Form going into Eldense vs Oviedo
Eldense
- L0-1away to Burgos27 September 2026
- L1-2Eibar19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sporting Gijon13 September 2026
Oviedo
- W2-0Sporting Gijon27 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sabadell20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Valladolid13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eldense vs Oviedo
- 2 October 2026Eldense 4–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 10 February 2025Oviedo 0–0 EldenseSegunda División
- 21 September 2024Eldense 1–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 4 February 2024Oviedo 1–1 EldenseSegunda División
- 1 October 2023Eldense 1–3 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eldense and Oviedo
Eldense
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.