Almeria vs Burgos Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Almeria 2-1 Burgos.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Almeria, 30% draw, 30% Burgos — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Almeria at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Almeria vs Burgos
Line-ups
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 2Marcos LunaD
- 21ChumiD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 15Leonardo LeloD
- 6Mikel VesgaM
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 12Léo BaptistãoM
- 11Sergio ArribasM
- 17B. CipengaM
- 9ThalysF
- 33Quim JunyentM
- 23Adri EmbarbaF
- 26K. KoneM
- 13Fernando MartínezG
- 10Nico MelamedM
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 20Álex SolaF
- 13Ander CanteroG
- 23Alberto DadieD
- 15Oier LuengoD
- 18Saúl del CerroD
- 22Brais MartínezD
- 14David GonzálezM
- 20José GrageraM
- 12Unai VencedorM
- 19Javi LlabrésM
- 7Jon KarrikaburuF
- 16Curro SánchezF
- 21Fermin GarciaF
- 17Mario CanteroM
- 9Álex ForésF
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 35D. GonzalezG
- 24S. LencinasM
- 2ÁlexD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 11Víctor MollejoF
Form going into Almeria vs Burgos
Almeria
- W1-0away to Mallorca27 September 2026
- W2-0Celta de Vigo II20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Cordoba12 September 2026
Burgos
- W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 21 |
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Almeria vs Burgos
- 3 October 2026Almeria 2–1 BurgosSegunda División
- 9 May 2026Burgos 0–0 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 14 December 2025Almeria 1–2 BurgosSegunda División
- 21 March 2025Burgos 3–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 5 October 2024Almeria 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 30 April 2022Burgos 0–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Almeria and Burgos
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente51
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés31
- David González31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.