Cadiz vs Leganes Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Cadiz 4-0 Leganes.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Cadiz, 31% draw, 33% Leganes — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cadiz at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cadiz vs Leganes
Line-ups
- 1David GilG
- 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
- 4Javi CastroD
- 6Manu FernándezD
- 3Sergio ArribasD
- 18Jandro OrellanaM
- 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
- 16Antonio CorderoM
- 5M. DouéM
- 24Ibon SánchezM
- 21V. KopotunF
- 2Beñat de JesúsD
- 20Borja VazquezF
- 19Urko IzetaF
- 22Cristian GutiérrezD
- 9Álvaro GarcíaF
- 13Jokin EzkietaG
- 17A. MoueffekM
- 10Javi OntiverosM
- 25G. PetitF
- 13L. ZidaneG
- 6Lalo AguilarD
- 3Javi MonteroD
- 2MarvelD
- 22Álex SancrisM
- 8Y. KechtaM
- 20Miguel AtienzaM
- 17Ismaël GharbiM
- 11Naim GarcíaM
- 19P. SokoF
- 21Álvaro MorataF
- 10Z. BuurmeesterM
- 18Andrés CamposF
- 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedF
- 1Raúl FernándezG
- 15Enric FranquesaD
- 38Álex GonzálezG
- 9Álex MillánF
- 5Ignasi MiquelD
- 4Rubén PulidoD
Form going into Cadiz vs Leganes
Cadiz
- D1-1away to Tenerife26 September 2026
- L1-2Girona19 September 2026
- L0-1Las Palmas12 September 2026
Leganes
- L0-2Castellón28 September 2026
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tenerife13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Leganes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cadiz vs Leganes
- 3 October 2026Cadiz 4–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 24 May 2026Cadiz 3–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 22 August 2025Leganes 1–1 CadizSegunda División
Leading scorers: Cadiz and Leganes
Cadiz
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Cordero31
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.