Cannes vs Quevilly Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Cannes 3-1 Quevilly.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Cannes, 30% draw, 21% Quevilly — fair odds of 2.04, 3.33 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cannes at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Cannes vs Quevilly
Cannes
- D0-0away to Orleans26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bastia17 September 2026
- D0-0Amiens10 September 2026
- W3-0away to Versailles5 September 2026
Quevilly
- D1-1Amiens26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Versailles19 September 2026
- W2-1Le Puy Foot12 September 2026
- D1-1away to La Roche VF5 September 2026
What these results say
- Cannes went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Cannes failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cannes kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Quevilly went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Quevilly failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Quevilly scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cannes vs Quevilly
- 3 October 2026Cannes 3–1 QuevillyLigue 3
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.