Fleury 91 vs Caen Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Fleury 91 3-2 Caen.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Fleury 91, 27% draw, 29% Caen — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleury 91 at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Fleury 91 vs Caen
Fleury 91
- L1-2Aubagne26 September 2026
- D1-1Thionville Lusitanos19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Valenciennes12 September 2026
- W6-1Villefranche5 September 2026
Caen
- W3-2Rouen24 September 2026
- L0-2away to Concarneau19 September 2026
- W2-0Gobelins12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Bourg-en-bresse 015 September 2026
What these results say
- Fleury 91 scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fleury 91 conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Fleury 91.
- Caen won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Caen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Caen had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fleury 91 vs Caen
- 3 October 2026Fleury 91 3–2 CaenLigue 3
- 6 February 2026Caen 1–0 Fleury 91Ligue 3
- 29 August 2025Fleury 91 1–2 CaenLigue 3
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.