Le Puy Foot vs Thionville Lusitanos Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Le Puy Foot 1-0 Thionville Lusitanos.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Le Puy Foot, 26% draw, 29% Thionville Lusitanos — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Puy Foot at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Le Puy Foot vs Thionville Lusitanos
Le Puy Foot
- L1-2away to Valenciennes26 September 2026
- W4-1Villefranche19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Quevilly12 September 2026
- D1-1Orleans5 September 2026
Thionville Lusitanos
- L1-2La Roche VF26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fleury 9119 September 2026
- L0-4Rouen12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Concarneau5 September 2026
What these results say
- Le Puy Foot scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Le Puy Foot conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Le Puy Foot.
- Thionville Lusitanos did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Thionville Lusitanos conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Thionville Lusitanos scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Puy Foot vs Thionville Lusitanos
- 3 October 2026Le Puy Foot 1–0 Thionville LusitanosLigue 3
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.