Rouen vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 Ligue 3 prediction & result
Final score: Rouen 2-0 Bourg-en-bresse 01.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Rouen, 25% draw, 16% Bourg-en-bresse 01 — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rouen at 59% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Rouen vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
Rouen
- L2-3away to Caen24 September 2026
- W1-0Aubagne19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Thionville Lusitanos12 September 2026
- D1-1Valenciennes3 September 2026
Bourg-en-bresse 01
- D1-1Concarneau26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gobelins19 September 2026
- L0-1Bastia12 September 2026
- L0-2Caen5 September 2026
What these results say
- Rouen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Bourg-en-bresse 01 had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 20 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rouen vs Bourg-en-bresse 01
- 3 October 2026Rouen 2–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
- 6 March 2026Bourg-en-bresse 01 3–1 RouenLigue 3
- 26 September 2025Rouen 1–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
- 12 April 2025Rouen 2–1 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
- 22 November 2024Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–1 RouenLigue 3
- 9 February 2013Rouen 1–0 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.